Altcoins or Bitcoin? Trade the Cycle
Altcoins or Bitcoin
The ETHBTC chart continues to show signs of strength. The majority of my portfolio was moved into Ethereum at the beginning of December. I didn’t quite catch the bottom but it’s become a lot clearer that this chart is essential in figuring out when to move into altcoins and when to be more conservative and move back into bitcoin.
Cycles rule all markets and crypto is no different. We are currently seeing an ICO boom which brings along with it a lot of opportunity, and inevitably a huge amount of human irrationality too. The Ethereum Bitcoin cycle is quite regular as you can see above. We can interpret it as follows: generally speaking as we see Ethereum gain on Bitcoin, a lot more capital will be pumped into the altcoin market. We are roughly halfway through one of those cycles now. I expect to see continued interest and capital inflows into ICO’s and altcoins in general until Ethereum hits it’s peak in the chart above, roughly around May/June of this year (2018).
There’s still some room to run on this chart above and assigning a heavier altcoin presence in your portfolio is probably the better option in current market conditions. I say probably, because everyone and their grandmother is now launching an ICO. This is a warning sign.
While I love the idea of ICO’s, things are just getting out of hand real fast. Make sure to Do Your Own Research (DYOR). I prefer to trade coins I consider to be higher quality projects, regardless of how good the technicals looks in any given pair. Will be following up this post with some swing trades in the coming days.